The present and future of post production business and technology | Philip Hodgetts
Probably the most interesting conversation I had at NAB was Sunday night at the Independent Filmmakers of the Inland Empire KISS mini-golf event. The setting might have been unique but the problem was not: Now that Final Cut Pro 7 isn’t the default choice for colleges (and high schools) to teach, which NLE do I teach? As the conversation continued it became obvious that there were more factors at work than just taking a punt on which NLE will become the “next FCP 7?.
Although Final Cut Pro 6/7 are probably still the most used NLE (although I’m beginning to think that’s debatable), schools have to look forward so their students have relevant skills for an industry that’s still three or four years away. In the “pro” market Media Composer still rules “Hollywood” (although not necessarily the latest versions); Premiere Pro is gaining some foothold where it never has before; and Final Cut Pro X has a lot more penetration into the Pro market than most people think it has.
In this lady’s case, the complicating factor is that her school has a deal with Lynda.com so that students (and faculty) have unlimited access to the Lynda training library, meaning students can teach themselves the details of whichever app the school decided to teach.
Here’s the problem: there is no way that anyone can accurately determine which NLE will be popular/dominant in 3+ years when the students graduate. I have my own educated guess, but who knows, Lightworks on OS X might turn out to be incredibly popular due to its power and near-free pricing. (Arguably though, the cost of any NLE is so low these days that, used professionally, they are all effectively free.) read more...