Where goes Final Cut Pro X and the other NLEs?

On the International Media User Group (IMUG) an email group, Eric Darling of eThree Media posed a common question, essentially betting against the success of Final Cut Pro X in the “post production industry”. Not surprisingly, I disagree. I believe that, ultimately, Final Cut Pro X is the fastest professional NLE and that will be the reason it eventually dominates.

Here’s Eric’s contention after the release of Final Cut Pro X 10.0.6 which started the conversation.

I’m going to leave the last paragraph untouched as it’s personal opinion that I don’t agree with but allow that it’s a position several have.

Let me address the direct question in the first paragraph:

But, is it true that over 50% of previous predominant FCP users are now predominantly FCPx users?

The simple answer to that question is “No, and no-one has ever claimed that. Not Apple, not me nor any other commentator I’ve read”. What Apple have claimed, and I have no reason to dispute, is that Final Cut Pro X has outsold the sales of Final Cut Pro 7, specifically version 7, and version 7 only. That’s entirely credible because not a huge percentage of the 2 million seats upgraded to Final Cut Pro 7. read more...