Will CS5 and MC5 toast FCP?

OK, now that I have your attention, let me answer the question. Without a doubt – no – at least not for a while. There sure is a lot of sturm und drang on the Internet lately about the supposed fate of Final Cut Pro. It started around NAB-time this year, partially due to the lack of an Apple presence (everyone is supposed to know they’ve sworn off trade shows), partially due to rumors of layoffs among some of the ProApps team and then fueled by Steve Job’s cryptic e-mail to a blogger that the next version would be “awesome”.

It caught fire again after another dubious rumor suggesting that the next version of FCP would in some way be “dumbed down” to appeal to “prosumers”. Even though more analytical blog posts have tried to inject some reason into the argument, the rants from various camps (usually Avid vs. FCP) persist in part because of Apple’s legendary secrecy and probably a fair of amount of editors hoping to enjoy some schadenfreude, should Apple falter.

Both Adobe and Avid have now released really superb updates to their NLEs. This comes unanswered by Apple, so for the moment, there’s a window of opportunity for Premiere Pro CS5 and Media Composer 5 to gain ground. Apple released the “new” Final Cut Studio last year, which focused on FCP7. By all accounts this was most likely a stop-gap release on the way to the next version. Many consider it more akin to FCP 6.5. On the other hand, I felt that some of the FCP7 changes, like the new speed tools, were significant improvements to the product. read more...